State Order Date Standard Deviation
(RMSE From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Infection Rate
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
R Squared
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Slope Standard Error
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Confidence Interval
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Maximum Number of Days Before Maximum Number of Cases Before n
(days)
Standard Deviation
(RMSE From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Infection Rate
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
R Squared
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Slope Standard Error
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Confidence Interval
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Maximum Number of Days After Maximum Number of Cases After Mean Slope Change
(Log Scale)
0 Alabama 2020-04-30 0.045 0.024 0.943 0.001 (0.021, 0.026) 27 7088 178 0.107 0.008 0.936 0.0 (0.008, 0.008) 178 184355 0.083
1 Alaska 2020-04-24 0.053 0.021 0.909 0.001 (0.018, 0.023) 28 339 184 0.079 0.010 0.977 0.0 (0.01, 0.01) 184 13008 0.058
2 Arizona 2020-05-04 0.042 0.023 0.968 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 35 8924 55 0.037 0.016 0.979 0.0 (0.015, 0.017) 55 73920 0.014
3 California 2020-05-08 0.165 0.032 0.893 0.002 (0.029, 0.036) 51 63800 65 0.009 0.011 0.998 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 65 324543 -0.023
4 Colorado 2020-04-27 0.064 0.027 0.943 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 33 13879 63 0.024 0.005 0.941 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 63 32494 -0.003
5 Connecticut 2020-05-20 0.219 0.027 0.819 0.002 (0.024, 0.031) 59 39017 158 0.009 0.001 0.972 0.0 (0.001, 0.001) 158 66052 -0.018
6 Delaware 2020-05-08 0.141 0.038 0.929 0.002 (0.035, 0.042) 46 6111 170 0.022 0.003 0.978 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 170 23961 -0.016
7 District of Columbia 2020-05-29 0.091 0.018 0.919 0.001 (0.016, 0.019) 59 8538 149 0.009 0.002 0.989 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 149 16767 -0.009
8 Florida 2020-05-04 0.040 0.017 0.937 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 32 36897 52 0.024 0.009 0.967 0.0 (0.008, 0.009) 52 114018 0.007
9 Georgia 2020-04-24 0.035 0.028 0.963 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 22 22491 184 0.086 0.007 0.949 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 184 350923 0.058
10 Hawaii 2020-04-30 0.114 0.021 0.791 0.002 (0.017, 0.024) 37 618 178 0.132 0.010 0.939 0.0 (0.01, 0.01) 178 14672 0.111
11 Idaho 2020-05-01 0.180 0.027 0.731 0.003 (0.021, 0.033) 38 2015 177 0.115 0.009 0.946 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 177 59344 0.088
12 Illinois 2020-05-29 0.198 0.027 0.881 0.001 (0.024, 0.029) 70 117455 149 0.010 0.003 0.995 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 149 378958 -0.017
13 Indiana 2020-05-04 0.162 0.036 0.876 0.002 (0.031, 0.04) 42 20507 174 0.017 0.005 0.995 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 174 162607 -0.019
14 Kansas 2020-05-04 0.034 0.031 0.989 0.001 (0.03, 0.032) 36 5383 174 0.033 0.006 0.990 0.0 (0.006, 0.007) 174 75816 0.002
15 Kentucky 2020-05-11 0.098 0.028 0.940 0.001 (0.026, 0.031) 47 6677 77 0.013 0.007 0.994 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 77 27586 -0.015
16 Louisiana 2020-05-15 0.210 0.021 0.715 0.002 (0.018, 0.025) 54 33837 58 0.018 0.006 0.968 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 58 78122 -0.003
17 Maine 2020-05-01 0.027 0.015 0.959 0.001 (0.014, 0.017) 30 1123 177 0.055 0.003 0.909 0.0 (0.003, 0.004) 177 6199 0.040
18 Maryland 2020-05-15 0.106 0.028 0.927 0.001 (0.026, 0.03) 47 36986 163 0.026 0.003 0.969 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 163 140279 -0.002
19 Massachusetts 2020-05-18 0.129 0.023 0.891 0.001 (0.021, 0.025) 56 89125 160 0.007 0.001 0.982 0.0 (0.001, 0.001) 160 150565 -0.016
20 Michigan 2020-06-01 0.184 0.016 0.750 0.001 (0.014, 0.018) 70 62928 29 0.002 0.002 0.976 0.0 (0.001, 0.002) 29 70728 -0.014
21 Minnesota 2020-05-17 0.028 0.031 0.996 0.000 (0.03, 0.031) 52 15668 161 0.026 0.005 0.988 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 161 133802 -0.005
22 Mississippi 2020-04-27 0.023 0.027 0.986 0.001 (0.026, 0.029) 25 6094 181 0.086 0.007 0.948 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 181 115088 0.059
23 Missouri 2020-05-04 0.023 0.015 0.969 0.001 (0.014, 0.016) 29 8998 174 0.044 0.008 0.988 0.0 (0.008, 0.008) 174 171796 0.029
24 Montana 2020-04-26 0.063 0.016 0.829 0.001 (0.013, 0.019) 30 448 182 0.100 0.011 0.972 0.0 (0.011, 0.011) 182 27880 0.084
25 Nevada 2020-05-09 0.045 0.016 0.943 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 39 6171 61 0.033 0.010 0.964 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 61 24904 0.017
26 New Hampshire 2020-05-11 0.090 0.025 0.932 0.001 (0.023, 0.027) 46 3160 167 0.027 0.002 0.941 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 167 10328 0.002
27 New Jersey 2020-06-09 0.278 0.017 0.682 0.001 (0.015, 0.02) 81 164796 138 0.005 0.001 0.978 0.0 (0.001, 0.001) 138 228468 -0.012
28 New Mexico 2020-05-01 0.107 0.040 0.945 0.002 (0.036, 0.043) 39 3513 72 0.023 0.008 0.980 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 72 15028 -0.017
29 New York 2020-05-15 0.157 0.020 0.800 0.001 (0.017, 0.023) 55 345813 163 0.004 0.001 0.989 0.0 (0.001, 0.001) 163 495464 -0.016
30 North Carolina 2020-05-08 0.054 0.024 0.962 0.001 (0.022, 0.025) 40 14516 170 0.099 0.007 0.923 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 170 260099 0.075
31 Ohio 2020-05-04 0.126 0.036 0.925 0.002 (0.032, 0.039) 43 20474 174 0.042 0.005 0.977 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 174 198115 0.006
32 Oregon 2020-05-15 0.118 0.019 0.868 0.001 (0.017, 0.022) 54 3541 163 0.079 0.007 0.946 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 163 42101 0.060
33 Pennsylvania 2020-05-08 0.083 0.023 0.902 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 38 57371 170 0.011 0.003 0.994 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 170 198713 -0.012
34 Rhode Island 2020-05-09 0.133 0.038 0.925 0.002 (0.034, 0.041) 43 10989 169 0.014 0.002 0.979 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 169 30118 -0.024
35 South Carolina 2020-04-20 0.017 0.021 0.962 0.001 (0.018, 0.023) 14 4446 188 0.142 0.009 0.922 0.0 (0.009, 0.009) 188 170678 0.121
36 Tennessee 2020-04-27 0.019 0.020 0.985 0.001 (0.019, 0.021) 26 9918 181 0.084 0.008 0.959 0.0 (0.008, 0.008) 181 247587 0.064
37 Texas 2020-05-01 0.051 0.024 0.944 0.001 (0.022, 0.027) 30 29692 55 0.015 0.011 0.993 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 55 134558 -0.009
38 Vermont 2020-04-20 0.079 0.030 0.897 0.002 (0.026, 0.034) 27 816 188 0.012 0.002 0.989 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 188 2073 -0.018
39 Virginia 2020-05-15 0.087 0.029 0.952 0.001 (0.027, 0.031) 47 28672 163 0.033 0.004 0.974 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 163 172774 0.004
40 Washington 2020-05-11 0.096 0.015 0.838 0.001 (0.013, 0.017) 50 17122 167 0.049 0.005 0.959 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 167 102913 0.034
41 West Virginia 2020-04-30 0.171 0.038 0.854 0.003 (0.032, 0.043) 38 1125 178 0.037 0.008 0.991 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 178 21907 -0.001
42 Wisconsin 2020-05-13 0.071 0.022 0.953 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 50 10902 165 0.027 0.007 0.994 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 165 198166 0.005