State Order Date Standard Deviation
(RMSE From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Infection Rate
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
R Squared
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Slope Standard Error
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Confidence Interval
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Maximum Number of Days Before Maximum Number of Cases Before n
(days)
Standard Deviation
(RMSE From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Infection Rate
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
R Squared
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Slope Standard Error
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Confidence Interval
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Maximum Number of Days After Maximum Number of Cases After Mean Slope Change
(Log Scale)
0 Alabama 2020-04-30 0.042 0.022 0.945 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 27 7187 206 0.124 0.007 0.918 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 206 232506 0.102
1 Alaska 2020-04-24 0.047 0.020 0.921 0.001 (0.018, 0.022) 28 344 212 0.089 0.010 0.977 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 212 27773 0.069
2 Arizona 2020-05-04 0.042 0.023 0.968 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 35 8924 55 0.037 0.016 0.979 0.0 (0.015, 0.017) 55 73920 0.014
3 California 2020-05-08 0.165 0.032 0.893 0.002 (0.029, 0.036) 51 63800 65 0.009 0.011 0.998 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 65 324543 -0.023
4 Colorado 2020-04-27 0.064 0.027 0.943 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 33 13879 63 0.024 0.005 0.941 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 63 32511 -0.003
5 Connecticut 2020-05-20 0.219 0.027 0.819 0.002 (0.024, 0.031) 59 39017 186 0.035 0.002 0.857 0.0 (0.001, 0.002) 186 101469 0.008
6 Delaware 2020-05-08 0.141 0.038 0.929 0.002 (0.035, 0.042) 46 6111 198 0.021 0.003 0.984 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 198 31808 -0.017
7 District of Columbia 2020-05-29 0.091 0.018 0.919 0.001 (0.016, 0.019) 59 8538 177 0.009 0.002 0.992 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 177 20151 -0.009
8 Florida 2020-05-04 0.040 0.017 0.937 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 32 36897 52 0.024 0.009 0.967 0.0 (0.008, 0.009) 52 114018 0.007
9 Georgia 2020-04-24 0.035 0.028 0.963 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 22 22491 212 0.103 0.006 0.931 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 212 449132 0.075
10 Hawaii 2020-04-30 0.114 0.021 0.791 0.002 (0.017, 0.024) 37 618 206 0.142 0.009 0.937 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 206 17483 0.121
11 Idaho 2020-05-01 0.180 0.027 0.731 0.003 (0.021, 0.033) 38 2015 205 0.122 0.009 0.948 0.0 (0.008, 0.009) 205 91653 0.095
12 Illinois 2020-05-29 0.198 0.027 0.881 0.001 (0.024, 0.029) 70 117455 177 0.032 0.004 0.973 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 177 656298 0.005
13 Indiana 2020-05-04 0.162 0.036 0.876 0.002 (0.031, 0.04) 42 20507 202 0.026 0.005 0.992 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 202 295357 -0.010
14 Kansas 2020-05-04 0.034 0.031 0.989 0.001 (0.03, 0.032) 36 5383 202 0.030 0.006 0.994 0.0 (0.006, 0.007) 202 137085 -0.001
15 Kentucky 2020-05-11 0.098 0.028 0.940 0.001 (0.026, 0.031) 47 6677 77 0.013 0.007 0.994 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 77 27586 -0.015
16 Louisiana 2020-05-15 0.210 0.021 0.715 0.002 (0.018, 0.025) 54 33837 58 0.018 0.006 0.968 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 58 78122 -0.003
17 Maine 2020-05-01 0.027 0.015 0.959 0.001 (0.014, 0.017) 30 1123 205 0.053 0.003 0.935 0.0 (0.003, 0.004) 205 10359 0.038
18 Maryland 2020-05-15 0.106 0.028 0.927 0.001 (0.026, 0.03) 47 36986 191 0.027 0.003 0.974 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 191 182139 -0.001
19 Massachusetts 2020-05-18 0.129 0.023 0.891 0.001 (0.021, 0.025) 56 89125 188 0.024 0.001 0.915 0.0 (0.001, 0.002) 188 206850 0.001
20 Michigan 2020-06-01 0.184 0.016 0.750 0.001 (0.014, 0.018) 70 62928 29 0.002 0.002 0.976 0.0 (0.001, 0.002) 29 70728 -0.014
21 Minnesota 2020-05-17 0.028 0.031 0.996 0.000 (0.03, 0.031) 52 15668 189 0.034 0.005 0.986 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 189 270157 0.003
22 Mississippi 2020-04-27 0.023 0.027 0.986 0.001 (0.026, 0.029) 25 6094 209 0.102 0.006 0.931 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 209 143180 0.075
23 Missouri 2020-05-04 0.023 0.015 0.969 0.001 (0.014, 0.016) 29 8998 202 0.050 0.008 0.988 0.0 (0.008, 0.008) 202 277112 0.035
24 Montana 2020-04-26 0.063 0.016 0.829 0.001 (0.013, 0.019) 30 448 210 0.093 0.011 0.982 0.0 (0.011, 0.011) 210 55680 0.077
25 Nevada 2020-05-09 0.045 0.016 0.943 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 39 6171 61 0.033 0.010 0.964 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 61 24904 0.017
26 New Hampshire 2020-05-11 0.090 0.025 0.932 0.001 (0.023, 0.027) 46 3160 195 0.039 0.003 0.934 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 195 17637 0.014
27 New Jersey 2020-06-09 0.278 0.017 0.682 0.001 (0.015, 0.02) 81 164796 166 0.022 0.001 0.881 0.0 (0.001, 0.001) 166 306007 0.005
28 New Mexico 2020-05-01 0.107 0.040 0.945 0.002 (0.036, 0.043) 39 3513 72 0.023 0.008 0.980 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 72 15028 -0.017
29 New York 2020-05-15 0.157 0.020 0.800 0.001 (0.017, 0.023) 55 345813 191 0.012 0.001 0.951 0.0 (0.001, 0.001) 191 596214 -0.008
30 North Carolina 2020-05-08 0.054 0.024 0.962 0.001 (0.022, 0.025) 40 14516 198 0.107 0.006 0.916 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 198 336775 0.083
31 Ohio 2020-05-04 0.126 0.036 0.925 0.002 (0.032, 0.039) 43 20474 202 0.041 0.005 0.983 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 202 351419 0.005
32 Oregon 2020-05-15 0.118 0.019 0.868 0.001 (0.017, 0.022) 54 3541 191 0.083 0.006 0.948 0.0 (0.006, 0.007) 191 65170 0.064
33 Pennsylvania 2020-05-08 0.083 0.023 0.902 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 38 57371 198 0.021 0.003 0.986 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 198 313358 -0.002
34 Rhode Island 2020-05-09 0.133 0.038 0.925 0.002 (0.034, 0.041) 43 10989 197 0.034 0.002 0.940 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 197 48001 -0.004
35 South Carolina 2020-04-20 0.017 0.021 0.962 0.001 (0.018, 0.023) 14 4446 216 0.166 0.008 0.897 0.0 (0.008, 0.008) 216 206295 0.145
36 Tennessee 2020-04-27 0.019 0.020 0.985 0.001 (0.019, 0.021) 26 9918 209 0.097 0.007 0.951 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 209 340476 0.077
37 Texas 2020-05-01 0.052 0.024 0.944 0.001 (0.022, 0.027) 30 29713 55 0.015 0.011 0.993 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 55 134752 -0.009
38 Vermont 2020-04-20 0.079 0.030 0.897 0.002 (0.026, 0.034) 27 816 216 0.030 0.002 0.958 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 216 3629 0.000
39 Virginia 2020-05-15 0.087 0.029 0.952 0.001 (0.027, 0.031) 47 28672 191 0.037 0.004 0.973 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 191 217796 0.008
40 Washington 2020-05-11 0.096 0.015 0.838 0.001 (0.013, 0.017) 50 17122 195 0.053 0.005 0.959 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 195 141260 0.038
41 West Virginia 2020-04-30 0.171 0.038 0.854 0.003 (0.032, 0.043) 38 1125 206 0.038 0.007 0.993 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 206 40478 0.000
42 Wisconsin 2020-05-13 0.071 0.022 0.953 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 50 10902 193 0.033 0.007 0.993 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 193 376238 0.011