State Order Date Standard Deviation
(RMSE From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Infection Rate
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
R Squared
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Slope Standard Error
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Confidence Interval
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Maximum Number of Days Before Maximum Number of Cases Before n
(days)
Standard Deviation
(RMSE From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Infection Rate
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
R Squared
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Slope Standard Error
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Confidence Interval
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Maximum Number of Days After Maximum Number of Cases After Mean Slope Change
(Log Scale)
0 Alabama 2020-04-30 0.042 0.022 0.945 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 27 7187 347 0.157 0.005 0.906 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 347 519071 0.135
1 Alaska 2020-04-24 0.047 0.020 0.921 0.001 (0.018, 0.022) 28 344 353 0.191 0.007 0.937 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 353 65180 0.171
2 Arizona 2020-05-04 0.042 0.023 0.968 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 35 8924 55 0.037 0.016 0.979 0.0 (0.015, 0.017) 55 73920 0.014
3 California 2020-05-08 0.165 0.033 0.894 0.002 (0.029, 0.036) 51 64564 65 0.010 0.011 0.998 0.0 (0.011, 0.011) 65 331786 -0.023
4 Colorado 2020-04-27 0.064 0.027 0.943 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 33 13879 63 0.024 0.005 0.941 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 63 32511 -0.003
5 Connecticut 2020-05-20 0.219 0.027 0.819 0.002 (0.024, 0.031) 59 39017 327 0.088 0.003 0.927 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 327 324571 0.061
6 Delaware 2020-05-08 0.141 0.038 0.929 0.002 (0.035, 0.042) 46 6111 339 0.049 0.004 0.981 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 339 98925 0.011
7 District of Columbia 2020-05-29 0.091 0.018 0.919 0.001 (0.016, 0.019) 59 8538 318 0.031 0.002 0.982 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 318 45903 0.013
8 Florida 2020-05-04 0.040 0.017 0.937 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 32 36897 52 0.024 0.009 0.967 0.0 (0.008, 0.009) 52 114018 0.007
9 Georgia 2020-04-24 0.035 0.028 0.963 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 22 22491 353 0.126 0.005 0.931 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 353 1074731 0.098
10 Hawaii 2020-04-30 0.114 0.021 0.791 0.002 (0.017, 0.024) 37 618 347 0.227 0.006 0.864 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 347 32137 0.206
11 Idaho 2020-05-01 0.180 0.027 0.731 0.003 (0.021, 0.033) 38 2015 346 0.195 0.006 0.904 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 346 183691 0.168
12 Illinois 2020-05-29 0.198 0.027 0.881 0.001 (0.024, 0.029) 70 117455 318 0.068 0.004 0.964 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 318 1282114 0.041
13 Indiana 2020-05-04 0.162 0.036 0.876 0.002 (0.031, 0.04) 42 20507 343 0.080 0.005 0.973 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 343 699823 0.044
14 Kansas 2020-05-04 0.034 0.031 0.989 0.001 (0.03, 0.032) 36 5383 343 0.104 0.005 0.963 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 343 306262 0.073
15 Kentucky 2020-05-11 0.098 0.028 0.940 0.001 (0.026, 0.031) 47 6677 77 0.013 0.007 0.994 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 77 27586 -0.015
16 Louisiana 2020-05-15 0.210 0.021 0.715 0.002 (0.018, 0.025) 54 33837 58 0.018 0.006 0.968 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 58 78122 -0.003
17 Maine 2020-05-01 0.027 0.015 0.959 0.001 (0.014, 0.017) 30 1123 346 0.097 0.005 0.962 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 346 54256 0.082
18 Maryland 2020-05-15 0.106 0.028 0.927 0.001 (0.026, 0.03) 47 36986 332 0.036 0.003 0.985 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 332 427715 0.008
19 Massachusetts 2020-05-18 0.129 0.023 0.891 0.001 (0.021, 0.025) 56 89125 329 0.083 0.003 0.926 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 329 661101 0.060
20 Michigan 2020-06-01 0.184 0.016 0.750 0.001 (0.014, 0.018) 70 62928 29 0.002 0.002 0.976 0.0 (0.001, 0.002) 29 70728 -0.014
21 Minnesota 2020-05-17 0.028 0.031 0.996 0.000 (0.03, 0.031) 52 15668 330 0.097 0.005 0.957 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 330 544046 0.066
22 Mississippi 2020-04-27 0.023 0.027 0.986 0.001 (0.026, 0.029) 25 6094 350 0.133 0.004 0.920 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 350 307519 0.106
23 Missouri 2020-05-04 0.020 0.015 0.975 0.000 (0.014, 0.016) 29 9070 343 0.141 0.006 0.942 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 343 588962 0.126
24 Montana 2020-04-26 0.063 0.016 0.829 0.001 (0.013, 0.019) 30 448 351 0.234 0.008 0.925 0.0 (0.008, 0.008) 351 106253 0.218
25 Nevada 2020-05-09 0.045 0.016 0.943 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 39 6171 61 0.033 0.010 0.964 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 61 24904 0.017
26 New Hampshire 2020-05-11 0.090 0.025 0.932 0.001 (0.023, 0.027) 46 3160 336 0.117 0.005 0.938 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 336 89229 0.092
27 New Jersey 2020-06-09 0.278 0.017 0.683 0.001 (0.015, 0.02) 81 165257 307 0.065 0.003 0.942 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 307 955958 0.048
28 New Mexico 2020-05-01 0.107 0.040 0.945 0.002 (0.036, 0.043) 39 3513 72 0.023 0.008 0.980 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 72 15028 -0.017
29 New York 2020-05-15 0.165 0.020 0.781 0.001 (0.017, 0.023) 55 348461 332 0.080 0.002 0.899 0.0 (0.002, 0.003) 332 1962225 0.060
30 North Carolina 2020-05-08 0.054 0.024 0.962 0.001 (0.022, 0.025) 40 14516 339 0.116 0.005 0.942 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 339 935061 0.092
31 Ohio 2020-05-04 0.126 0.036 0.925 0.002 (0.032, 0.039) 43 20474 343 0.082 0.005 0.976 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 343 1041389 0.046
32 Oregon 2020-05-15 0.118 0.019 0.868 0.001 (0.017, 0.022) 54 3541 332 0.112 0.005 0.952 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 332 170850 0.093
33 Pennsylvania 2020-05-08 0.083 0.023 0.902 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 38 57371 339 0.073 0.004 0.969 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 339 1077936 0.050
34 Rhode Island 2020-05-09 0.133 0.038 0.925 0.002 (0.034, 0.041) 43 10989 338 0.078 0.004 0.955 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 338 141097 0.040
35 South Carolina 2020-04-20 0.017 0.021 0.962 0.001 (0.018, 0.023) 14 4446 357 0.193 0.005 0.892 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 357 563427 0.172
36 Tennessee 2020-04-27 0.019 0.020 0.985 0.001 (0.019, 0.021) 26 9918 350 0.140 0.005 0.936 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 350 824914 0.120
37 Texas 2020-05-01 0.052 0.024 0.942 0.001 (0.022, 0.027) 30 29970 55 0.015 0.011 0.992 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 55 134997 -0.009
38 Vermont 2020-04-20 0.079 0.030 0.897 0.002 (0.026, 0.034) 27 816 357 0.118 0.004 0.934 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 357 21291 0.088
39 Virginia 2020-05-15 0.087 0.029 0.952 0.001 (0.027, 0.031) 47 28672 332 0.042 0.004 0.987 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 332 636862 0.013
40 Washington 2020-05-11 0.096 0.015 0.838 0.001 (0.013, 0.017) 50 17122 336 0.067 0.004 0.973 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 336 377952 0.052
41 West Virginia 2020-04-30 0.171 0.038 0.854 0.003 (0.032, 0.043) 38 1125 347 0.102 0.007 0.977 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 347 146462 0.064
42 Wisconsin 2020-05-13 0.071 0.022 0.953 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 50 10902 334 0.136 0.006 0.940 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 334 645964 0.114