State Order Date Standard Deviation
(RMSE From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Infection Rate
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
R Squared
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Slope Standard Error
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Confidence Interval
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Maximum Number of Days Before Maximum Number of Cases Before n
(days)
Standard Deviation
(RMSE From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Infection Rate
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
R Squared
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Slope Standard Error
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Confidence Interval
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Maximum Number of Days After Maximum Number of Cases After Mean Slope Change
(Log Scale)
0 Alabama 2020-04-30 0.042 0.022 0.945 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 27 7187 415 0.191 0.004 0.862 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 415 548657 0.169
1 Alaska 2020-04-24 0.047 0.020 0.921 0.001 (0.018, 0.022) 28 344 421 0.258 0.006 0.887 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 421 70875 0.238
2 Arizona 2020-05-04 0.042 0.023 0.968 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 35 8924 55 0.037 0.016 0.979 0.0 (0.015, 0.017) 55 73920 0.014
3 California 2020-05-08 0.165 0.033 0.894 0.002 (0.029, 0.036) 51 64564 65 0.010 0.011 0.998 0.0 (0.011, 0.011) 65 331786 -0.023
4 Colorado 2020-04-27 0.064 0.027 0.943 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 33 13879 63 0.024 0.005 0.941 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 63 32511 -0.003
5 Connecticut 2020-05-20 0.219 0.027 0.819 0.002 (0.024, 0.031) 59 39017 395 0.090 0.003 0.937 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 395 348665 0.063
6 Delaware 2020-05-08 0.141 0.038 0.929 0.002 (0.035, 0.042) 46 6111 407 0.069 0.003 0.969 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 407 109528 0.031
7 District of Columbia 2020-05-29 0.091 0.018 0.919 0.001 (0.016, 0.019) 59 8538 386 0.041 0.002 0.973 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 386 49243 0.023
8 Florida 2020-05-04 0.040 0.017 0.937 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 32 36897 52 0.024 0.009 0.967 0.0 (0.008, 0.009) 52 114018 0.007
9 Georgia 2020-04-24 0.035 0.028 0.963 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 22 22491 421 0.159 0.004 0.894 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 421 1130845 0.131
10 Hawaii 2020-04-30 0.114 0.021 0.791 0.002 (0.017, 0.024) 37 618 415 0.256 0.005 0.826 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 415 37284 0.235
11 Idaho 2020-05-01 0.180 0.027 0.731 0.003 (0.021, 0.033) 38 2015 414 0.243 0.005 0.850 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 414 194006 0.216
12 Illinois 2020-05-29 0.198 0.027 0.881 0.001 (0.024, 0.029) 70 117455 386 0.101 0.003 0.926 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 386 1388634 0.074
13 Indiana 2020-05-04 0.162 0.036 0.876 0.002 (0.031, 0.04) 42 20507 411 0.131 0.004 0.932 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 411 751242 0.095
14 Kansas 2020-05-04 0.034 0.031 0.989 0.001 (0.03, 0.032) 36 5383 411 0.167 0.004 0.908 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 411 317610 0.136
15 Kentucky 2020-05-11 0.098 0.028 0.940 0.001 (0.026, 0.031) 47 6677 77 0.013 0.007 0.994 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 77 27586 -0.015
16 Louisiana 2020-05-15 0.210 0.021 0.715 0.002 (0.018, 0.025) 54 33837 58 0.018 0.006 0.968 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 58 78122 -0.003
17 Maine 2020-05-01 0.027 0.015 0.959 0.001 (0.014, 0.017) 30 1123 414 0.102 0.005 0.965 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 414 68794 0.087
18 Maryland 2020-05-15 0.106 0.028 0.927 0.001 (0.026, 0.03) 47 36986 400 0.061 0.003 0.965 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 400 461697 0.033
19 Massachusetts 2020-05-18 0.129 0.023 0.891 0.001 (0.021, 0.025) 56 89125 397 0.083 0.003 0.939 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 397 709354 0.060
20 Michigan 2020-06-01 0.184 0.016 0.750 0.001 (0.014, 0.018) 70 62928 29 0.002 0.002 0.976 0.0 (0.001, 0.002) 29 70728 -0.014
21 Minnesota 2020-05-17 0.028 0.031 0.996 0.000 (0.03, 0.031) 52 15668 398 0.137 0.004 0.918 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 398 604406 0.106
22 Mississippi 2020-04-27 0.023 0.027 0.986 0.001 (0.026, 0.029) 25 6094 418 0.167 0.004 0.875 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 418 319948 0.140
23 Missouri 2020-05-04 0.020 0.015 0.975 0.000 (0.014, 0.016) 29 9070 411 0.201 0.005 0.883 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 411 617006 0.186
24 Montana 2020-04-26 0.063 0.016 0.829 0.001 (0.013, 0.019) 30 448 419 0.313 0.007 0.864 0.0 (0.006, 0.007) 419 113167 0.297
25 Nevada 2020-05-09 0.045 0.016 0.943 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 39 6171 61 0.033 0.010 0.964 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 61 24904 0.017
26 New Hampshire 2020-05-11 0.090 0.025 0.932 0.001 (0.023, 0.027) 46 3160 404 0.124 0.004 0.942 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 404 99254 0.099
27 New Jersey 2020-06-09 0.278 0.017 0.683 0.001 (0.015, 0.02) 81 165257 375 0.067 0.003 0.951 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 375 1021038 0.050
28 New Mexico 2020-05-01 0.107 0.040 0.945 0.002 (0.036, 0.043) 39 3513 72 0.023 0.008 0.980 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 72 15028 -0.017
29 New York 2020-05-15 0.165 0.020 0.781 0.001 (0.017, 0.023) 55 348461 400 0.075 0.002 0.934 0.0 (0.002, 0.003) 400 2111556 0.055
30 North Carolina 2020-05-08 0.054 0.024 0.962 0.001 (0.022, 0.025) 40 14516 407 0.150 0.004 0.910 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 407 1010113 0.126
31 Ohio 2020-05-04 0.126 0.036 0.925 0.002 (0.032, 0.039) 43 20474 411 0.138 0.004 0.936 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 411 1108736 0.102
32 Oregon 2020-05-15 0.118 0.019 0.868 0.001 (0.017, 0.022) 54 3541 400 0.149 0.004 0.919 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 400 206581 0.130
33 Pennsylvania 2020-05-08 0.082 0.023 0.902 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 38 57457 407 0.091 0.004 0.959 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 407 1214795 0.068
34 Rhode Island 2020-05-09 0.133 0.038 0.925 0.002 (0.034, 0.041) 43 10989 406 0.090 0.003 0.947 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 406 152383 0.052
35 South Carolina 2020-04-20 0.017 0.021 0.962 0.001 (0.018, 0.023) 14 4446 425 0.221 0.005 0.862 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 425 595448 0.200
36 Tennessee 2020-04-27 0.019 0.020 0.985 0.001 (0.019, 0.021) 26 9918 418 0.187 0.004 0.889 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 418 866027 0.167
37 Texas 2020-05-01 0.052 0.024 0.942 0.001 (0.022, 0.027) 30 29970 55 0.015 0.011 0.992 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 55 134997 -0.009
38 Vermont 2020-04-20 0.079 0.030 0.897 0.002 (0.026, 0.034) 27 816 425 0.112 0.004 0.955 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 425 24360 0.082
39 Virginia 2020-05-15 0.087 0.029 0.952 0.001 (0.027, 0.031) 47 28672 400 0.080 0.003 0.960 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 400 678595 0.051
40 Washington 2020-05-11 0.096 0.015 0.838 0.001 (0.013, 0.017) 50 17122 404 0.098 0.004 0.947 0.0 (0.003, 0.004) 404 447203 0.083
41 West Virginia 2020-04-30 0.171 0.038 0.854 0.003 (0.032, 0.043) 38 1125 415 0.175 0.006 0.938 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 415 163382 0.137
42 Wisconsin 2020-05-13 0.071 0.022 0.953 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 50 10902 402 0.193 0.004 0.879 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 402 676673 0.171