State Order Date Standard Deviation
(RMSE From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Infection Rate
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
R Squared
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Slope Standard Error
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Confidence Interval
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Maximum Number of Days Before Maximum Number of Cases Before n
(days)
Standard Deviation
(RMSE From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Infection Rate
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
R Squared
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Slope Standard Error
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Confidence Interval
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Maximum Number of Days After Maximum Number of Cases After Mean Slope Change
(Log Scale)
0 Alabama 2020-04-30 0.042 0.022 0.945 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 27 7187 409 0.188 0.004 0.866 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 409 547323 0.166
1 Alaska 2020-04-24 0.047 0.020 0.921 0.001 (0.018, 0.022) 28 344 415 0.253 0.006 0.891 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 415 70652 0.233
2 Arizona 2020-05-04 0.042 0.023 0.968 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 35 8924 55 0.037 0.016 0.979 0.0 (0.015, 0.017) 55 73920 0.014
3 California 2020-05-08 0.165 0.033 0.894 0.002 (0.029, 0.036) 51 64564 65 0.010 0.011 0.998 0.0 (0.011, 0.011) 65 331786 -0.023
4 Colorado 2020-04-27 0.064 0.027 0.943 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 33 13879 63 0.024 0.005 0.941 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 63 32511 -0.003
5 Connecticut 2020-05-20 0.219 0.027 0.819 0.002 (0.024, 0.031) 59 39017 389 0.089 0.003 0.938 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 389 348350 0.062
6 Delaware 2020-05-08 0.141 0.038 0.929 0.002 (0.035, 0.042) 46 6111 401 0.066 0.003 0.971 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 401 109358 0.028
7 District of Columbia 2020-05-29 0.091 0.018 0.919 0.001 (0.016, 0.019) 59 8538 380 0.039 0.002 0.975 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 380 49158 0.021
8 Florida 2020-05-04 0.040 0.017 0.937 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 32 36897 52 0.024 0.009 0.967 0.0 (0.008, 0.009) 52 114018 0.007
9 Georgia 2020-04-24 0.035 0.028 0.963 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 22 22491 415 0.156 0.004 0.898 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 415 1128690 0.128
10 Hawaii 2020-04-30 0.114 0.021 0.791 0.002 (0.017, 0.024) 37 618 409 0.254 0.005 0.829 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 409 37011 0.233
11 Idaho 2020-05-01 0.180 0.027 0.731 0.003 (0.021, 0.033) 38 2015 408 0.239 0.005 0.855 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 408 193515 0.212
12 Illinois 2020-05-29 0.198 0.027 0.881 0.001 (0.024, 0.029) 70 117455 380 0.098 0.003 0.930 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 380 1387513 0.071
13 Indiana 2020-05-04 0.162 0.036 0.876 0.002 (0.031, 0.04) 42 20507 405 0.127 0.004 0.936 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 405 749097 0.091
14 Kansas 2020-05-04 0.034 0.031 0.989 0.001 (0.03, 0.032) 36 5383 405 0.162 0.004 0.913 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 405 316886 0.131
15 Kentucky 2020-05-11 0.098 0.028 0.940 0.001 (0.026, 0.031) 47 6677 77 0.013 0.007 0.994 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 77 27586 -0.015
16 Louisiana 2020-05-15 0.210 0.021 0.715 0.002 (0.018, 0.025) 54 33837 58 0.018 0.006 0.968 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 58 78122 -0.003
17 Maine 2020-05-01 0.027 0.015 0.959 0.001 (0.014, 0.017) 30 1123 408 0.100 0.005 0.966 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 408 68590 0.085
18 Maryland 2020-05-15 0.106 0.028 0.927 0.001 (0.026, 0.03) 47 36986 394 0.058 0.003 0.967 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 394 461265 0.030
19 Massachusetts 2020-05-18 0.129 0.023 0.891 0.001 (0.021, 0.025) 56 89125 391 0.082 0.003 0.940 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 391 708875 0.059
20 Michigan 2020-06-01 0.184 0.016 0.750 0.001 (0.014, 0.018) 70 62928 29 0.002 0.002 0.976 0.0 (0.001, 0.002) 29 70728 -0.014
21 Minnesota 2020-05-17 0.028 0.031 0.996 0.000 (0.03, 0.031) 52 15668 392 0.134 0.004 0.923 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 392 603760 0.103
22 Mississippi 2020-04-27 0.023 0.027 0.986 0.001 (0.026, 0.029) 25 6094 412 0.164 0.004 0.879 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 412 319115 0.137
23 Missouri 2020-05-04 0.020 0.015 0.975 0.000 (0.014, 0.016) 29 9070 405 0.196 0.005 0.888 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 405 612956 0.181
24 Montana 2020-04-26 0.063 0.016 0.829 0.001 (0.013, 0.019) 30 448 413 0.307 0.007 0.870 0.0 (0.006, 0.007) 413 112761 0.291
25 Nevada 2020-05-09 0.045 0.016 0.943 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 39 6171 61 0.033 0.010 0.964 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 61 24904 0.017
26 New Hampshire 2020-05-11 0.090 0.025 0.932 0.001 (0.023, 0.027) 46 3160 398 0.122 0.004 0.944 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 398 99068 0.097
27 New Jersey 2020-06-09 0.278 0.017 0.683 0.001 (0.015, 0.02) 81 165257 369 0.065 0.003 0.952 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 369 1019563 0.048
28 New Mexico 2020-05-01 0.107 0.040 0.945 0.002 (0.036, 0.043) 39 3513 72 0.023 0.008 0.980 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 72 15028 -0.017
29 New York 2020-05-15 0.165 0.020 0.781 0.001 (0.017, 0.023) 55 348461 394 0.075 0.002 0.933 0.0 (0.002, 0.003) 394 2109313 0.055
30 North Carolina 2020-05-08 0.054 0.024 0.962 0.001 (0.022, 0.025) 40 14516 401 0.146 0.004 0.914 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 401 1007698 0.122
31 Ohio 2020-05-04 0.126 0.036 0.925 0.002 (0.032, 0.039) 43 20474 405 0.133 0.005 0.940 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 405 1107047 0.097
32 Oregon 2020-05-15 0.118 0.019 0.868 0.001 (0.017, 0.022) 54 3541 394 0.146 0.004 0.922 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 394 205030 0.127
33 Pennsylvania 2020-05-08 0.082 0.023 0.902 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 38 57457 401 0.088 0.004 0.961 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 401 1212999 0.065
34 Rhode Island 2020-05-09 0.133 0.038 0.925 0.002 (0.034, 0.041) 43 10989 400 0.088 0.003 0.949 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 400 152213 0.050
35 South Carolina 2020-04-20 0.017 0.021 0.962 0.001 (0.018, 0.023) 14 4446 419 0.218 0.005 0.865 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 419 594877 0.197
36 Tennessee 2020-04-27 0.019 0.020 0.985 0.001 (0.019, 0.021) 26 9918 412 0.183 0.004 0.894 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 412 865085 0.163
37 Texas 2020-05-01 0.052 0.024 0.942 0.001 (0.022, 0.027) 30 29970 55 0.015 0.011 0.992 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 55 134997 -0.009
38 Vermont 2020-04-20 0.079 0.030 0.897 0.002 (0.026, 0.034) 27 816 419 0.112 0.004 0.955 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 419 24320 0.082
39 Virginia 2020-05-15 0.087 0.029 0.952 0.001 (0.027, 0.031) 47 28672 394 0.076 0.003 0.964 0.0 (0.003, 0.004) 394 677744 0.047
40 Washington 2020-05-11 0.096 0.015 0.838 0.001 (0.013, 0.017) 50 17122 398 0.095 0.004 0.950 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 398 444166 0.080
41 West Virginia 2020-04-30 0.171 0.038 0.854 0.003 (0.032, 0.043) 38 1125 409 0.169 0.006 0.942 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 409 162939 0.131
42 Wisconsin 2020-05-13 0.071 0.022 0.953 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 50 10902 396 0.189 0.005 0.885 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 396 676075 0.167