State Order Date Standard Deviation
(RMSE From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Infection Rate
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
R Squared
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Slope Standard Error
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Confidence Interval
(From stay at home to start of reopening period)
Maximum Number of Days Before Maximum Number of Cases Before n
(days)
Standard Deviation
(RMSE From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Infection Rate
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
R Squared
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Slope Standard Error
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Confidence Interval
(From start of reopening period to start of second shutdown / today)
Maximum Number of Days After Maximum Number of Cases After Mean Slope Change
(Log Scale)
0 Alabama 2020-04-30 0.042 0.022 0.945 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 27 7187 262 0.132 0.006 0.922 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 262 422598 0.110
1 Alaska 2020-04-24 0.047 0.020 0.921 0.001 (0.018, 0.022) 28 344 268 0.096 0.009 0.981 0.0 (0.009, 0.009) 268 51938 0.076
2 Arizona 2020-05-04 0.042 0.023 0.968 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 35 8924 55 0.037 0.016 0.979 0.0 (0.015, 0.017) 55 73920 0.014
3 California 2020-05-08 0.165 0.032 0.893 0.002 (0.029, 0.036) 51 63800 65 0.009 0.011 0.998 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 65 324543 -0.023
4 Colorado 2020-04-27 0.064 0.027 0.943 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 33 13879 63 0.024 0.005 0.941 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 63 32511 -0.003
5 Connecticut 2020-05-20 0.219 0.027 0.819 0.002 (0.024, 0.031) 59 39017 242 0.089 0.003 0.836 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 242 223422 0.062
6 Delaware 2020-05-08 0.141 0.038 0.929 0.002 (0.035, 0.042) 46 6111 254 0.047 0.003 0.968 0.0 (0.003, 0.004) 254 70294 0.009
7 District of Columbia 2020-05-29 0.091 0.018 0.919 0.001 (0.016, 0.019) 59 8538 233 0.028 0.002 0.968 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 233 33851 0.010
8 Florida 2020-05-04 0.040 0.017 0.937 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 32 36897 52 0.024 0.009 0.967 0.0 (0.008, 0.009) 52 114018 0.007
9 Georgia 2020-04-24 0.035 0.028 0.963 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 22 22491 268 0.112 0.005 0.933 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 268 815995 0.084
10 Hawaii 2020-04-30 0.114 0.021 0.791 0.002 (0.017, 0.024) 37 618 262 0.178 0.008 0.911 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 262 24595 0.157
11 Idaho 2020-05-01 0.180 0.027 0.731 0.003 (0.021, 0.033) 38 2015 261 0.133 0.008 0.951 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 261 155554 0.106
12 Illinois 2020-05-29 0.198 0.027 0.881 0.001 (0.024, 0.029) 70 117455 233 0.048 0.004 0.975 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 233 1068829 0.021
13 Indiana 2020-05-04 0.162 0.036 0.876 0.002 (0.031, 0.04) 42 20507 258 0.046 0.005 0.987 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 258 590211 0.010
14 Kansas 2020-05-04 0.034 0.031 0.989 0.001 (0.03, 0.032) 36 5383 258 0.030 0.006 0.996 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 258 258354 -0.001
15 Kentucky 2020-05-11 0.098 0.028 0.940 0.001 (0.026, 0.031) 47 6677 77 0.013 0.007 0.994 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 77 27586 -0.015
16 Louisiana 2020-05-15 0.210 0.021 0.715 0.002 (0.018, 0.025) 54 33837 58 0.018 0.006 0.968 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 58 78122 -0.003
17 Maine 2020-05-01 0.027 0.015 0.959 0.001 (0.014, 0.017) 30 1123 261 0.092 0.004 0.929 0.0 (0.004, 0.005) 261 33559 0.077
18 Maryland 2020-05-15 0.106 0.028 0.927 0.001 (0.026, 0.03) 47 36986 247 0.030 0.003 0.983 0.0 (0.003, 0.003) 247 326445 0.002
19 Massachusetts 2020-05-18 0.129 0.023 0.891 0.001 (0.021, 0.025) 56 89125 244 0.078 0.003 0.843 0.0 (0.002, 0.003) 244 470140 0.055
20 Michigan 2020-06-01 0.184 0.016 0.750 0.001 (0.014, 0.018) 70 62928 29 0.002 0.002 0.976 0.0 (0.001, 0.002) 29 70728 -0.014
21 Minnesota 2020-05-17 0.028 0.031 0.996 0.000 (0.03, 0.031) 52 15668 245 0.049 0.006 0.986 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 245 446380 0.018
22 Mississippi 2020-04-27 0.023 0.027 0.986 0.001 (0.026, 0.029) 25 6094 265 0.110 0.005 0.934 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 265 252475 0.083
23 Missouri 2020-05-04 0.023 0.015 0.969 0.001 (0.014, 0.016) 29 8998 258 0.066 0.007 0.984 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 258 449379 0.051
24 Montana 2020-04-26 0.063 0.016 0.829 0.001 (0.013, 0.019) 30 448 266 0.113 0.010 0.980 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 266 89393 0.097
25 Nevada 2020-05-09 0.045 0.016 0.943 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 39 6171 61 0.033 0.010 0.964 0.0 (0.009, 0.01) 61 24904 0.017
26 New Hampshire 2020-05-11 0.090 0.025 0.932 0.001 (0.023, 0.027) 46 3160 251 0.116 0.004 0.872 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 251 56864 0.091
27 New Jersey 2020-06-09 0.278 0.017 0.683 0.001 (0.015, 0.02) 81 165257 222 0.065 0.003 0.859 0.0 (0.002, 0.003) 222 627221 0.048
28 New Mexico 2020-05-01 0.107 0.040 0.945 0.002 (0.036, 0.043) 39 3513 72 0.023 0.008 0.980 0.0 (0.007, 0.008) 72 15028 -0.017
29 New York 2020-05-15 0.165 0.020 0.781 0.001 (0.017, 0.023) 55 348461 247 0.061 0.002 0.809 0.0 (0.002, 0.002) 247 1242561 0.041
30 North Carolina 2020-05-08 0.054 0.024 0.962 0.001 (0.022, 0.025) 40 14516 254 0.106 0.006 0.937 0.0 (0.005, 0.006) 254 674637 0.082
31 Ohio 2020-05-04 0.126 0.036 0.925 0.002 (0.032, 0.039) 43 20474 258 0.051 0.006 0.987 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 258 826754 0.015
32 Oregon 2020-05-15 0.118 0.019 0.868 0.001 (0.017, 0.022) 54 3541 247 0.076 0.006 0.971 0.0 (0.006, 0.006) 247 133205 0.057
33 Pennsylvania 2020-05-08 0.083 0.023 0.902 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 38 57371 254 0.075 0.004 0.941 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 254 770985 0.052
34 Rhode Island 2020-05-09 0.133 0.038 0.925 0.002 (0.034, 0.041) 43 10989 253 0.081 0.003 0.908 0.0 (0.003, 0.004) 253 104443 0.043
35 South Carolina 2020-04-20 0.017 0.021 0.962 0.001 (0.018, 0.023) 14 4446 272 0.183 0.007 0.887 0.0 (0.006, 0.007) 272 388184 0.162
36 Tennessee 2020-04-27 0.019 0.020 0.985 0.001 (0.019, 0.021) 26 9918 265 0.100 0.006 0.960 0.0 (0.006, 0.007) 265 685321 0.080
37 Texas 2020-05-01 0.052 0.024 0.942 0.001 (0.022, 0.027) 30 29970 55 0.015 0.011 0.992 0.0 (0.01, 0.011) 55 134997 -0.009
38 Vermont 2020-04-20 0.079 0.030 0.897 0.002 (0.026, 0.034) 27 816 272 0.103 0.004 0.877 0.0 (0.003, 0.004) 272 10057 0.073
39 Virginia 2020-05-15 0.087 0.029 0.952 0.001 (0.027, 0.031) 47 28672 247 0.034 0.004 0.986 0.0 (0.004, 0.004) 247 439305 0.005
40 Washington 2020-05-11 0.096 0.015 0.838 0.001 (0.013, 0.017) 50 17122 251 0.046 0.005 0.982 0.0 (0.005, 0.005) 251 289939 0.031
41 West Virginia 2020-04-30 0.171 0.038 0.854 0.003 (0.032, 0.043) 38 1125 262 0.036 0.008 0.996 0.0 (0.008, 0.008) 262 108821 -0.002
42 Wisconsin 2020-05-13 0.071 0.022 0.953 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 50 10902 249 0.044 0.007 0.992 0.0 (0.007, 0.007) 249 568166 0.022