State Order Date Standard Deviation
(RMSE Before school closure)
Infection Rate
(Before school closure)
R Squared
(Before school closure)
Slope Standard Error
(Before school closure)
Confidence Interval
(Before school closure)
Maximum Number of Days Before Maximum Number of Cases Before n
(days)
Standard Deviation
(RMSE From school closure to stay at home / today)
Infection Rate
(From school closure to stay at home / today)
R Squared
(From school closure to stay at home / today)
Slope Standard Error
(From school closure to stay at home / today)
Confidence Interval
(From school closure to stay at home / today)
Maximum Number of Days After Maximum Number of Cases After Mean Slope Change
(Log Scale)
0 Alabama 2020-03-18 0.082 0.213 0.893 0.052 (-0.011, 0.437) 4 51 16 0.073 0.086 0.967 0.004 (0.077, 0.095) 16 1495 -0.140
1 Arizona 2020-03-16 0.042 0.088 0.750 0.051 (-0.558, 0.734) 3 18 14 0.091 0.138 0.974 0.007 (0.123, 0.152) 14 1157 0.003
2 Connecticut 2020-03-17 0.057 0.183 0.954 0.023 (0.109, 0.257) 5 68 5 0.053 0.115 0.903 0.022 (0.046, 0.185) 5 327 -0.130
3 Florida 2020-03-17 0.052 0.143 0.984 0.006 (0.128, 0.158) 10 190 16 0.040 0.096 0.992 0.002 (0.091, 0.101) 16 9008 -0.103
4 Georgia 2020-03-18 0.048 0.143 0.987 0.006 (0.129, 0.156) 10 197 15 0.039 0.086 0.989 0.003 (0.081, 0.092) 15 5348 -0.104
5 Hawaii 2020-03-19 0.011 0.199 0.996 0.013 (0.031, 0.367) 3 25 5 0.047 0.099 0.899 0.019 (0.038, 0.16) 5 90 -0.152
6 Illinois 2020-03-17 0.073 0.138 0.950 0.013 (0.106, 0.17) 8 161 3 0.012 0.166 0.993 0.014 (-0.013, 0.346) 3 585 -0.126
7 Indiana 2020-03-19 0.048 0.088 0.957 0.007 (0.071, 0.104) 9 60 4 0.018 0.169 0.991 0.011 (0.121, 0.218) 4 270 -0.070
8 Kentucky 2020-03-16 0.025 0.075 0.949 0.010 (0.043, 0.108) 5 21 9 0.045 0.113 0.977 0.007 (0.098, 0.129) 9 197 -0.030
9 Louisiana 2020-03-16 0.085 0.204 0.920 0.035 (0.093, 0.315) 5 115 6 0.033 0.134 0.980 0.010 (0.108, 0.161) 6 837 -0.171
10 Maryland 2020-03-16 0.059 0.121 0.895 0.024 (0.045, 0.198) 5 42 13 0.025 0.106 0.996 0.002 (0.102, 0.11) 13 1239 -0.096
11 Massachusetts 2020-03-17 0.115 0.121 0.939 0.009 (0.1, 0.141) 13 760 6 0.015 0.088 0.990 0.004 (0.076, 0.101) 6 2900 -0.106
12 Michigan 2020-03-16 0.027 0.160 0.978 0.017 (0.087, 0.233) 4 76 7 0.051 0.201 0.984 0.011 (0.172, 0.23) 7 1454 -0.109
13 Minnesota 2020-03-18 0.073 0.156 0.929 0.021 (0.096, 0.215) 6 77 8 0.027 0.085 0.981 0.005 (0.073, 0.097) 8 344 -0.129
14 Missouri 2020-03-19 0.029 0.239 0.978 0.036 (-0.22, 0.697) 3 42 17 0.111 0.098 0.950 0.006 (0.086, 0.111) 17 2568 -0.128
15 Nevada 2020-03-16 0.082 0.135 0.844 0.034 (0.028, 0.242) 5 45 15 0.059 0.094 0.980 0.004 (0.086, 0.102) 15 1114 -0.076
16 New Mexico 2020-03-16 0.043 0.097 0.863 0.027 (-0.021, 0.214) 4 21 7 0.023 0.089 0.984 0.005 (0.076, 0.102) 7 83 -0.074
17 New York 2020-03-18 0.115 0.153 0.971 0.007 (0.137, 0.169) 15 2507 3 0.030 0.196 0.967 0.036 (-0.265, 0.657) 3 10410 -0.123
18 North Carolina 2020-03-16 0.035 0.090 0.929 0.014 (0.044, 0.135) 5 39 13 0.069 0.103 0.969 0.006 (0.091, 0.116) 13 1234 -0.021
19 Ohio 2020-03-17 0.054 0.178 0.956 0.022 (0.107, 0.248) 5 67 5 0.009 0.152 0.998 0.004 (0.141, 0.164) 5 356 -0.169
20 Oregon 2020-03-16 0.044 0.067 0.939 0.006 (0.052, 0.083) 9 39 6 0.013 0.081 0.992 0.004 (0.071, 0.091) 6 161 -0.054
21 Pennsylvania 2020-03-16 0.060 0.133 0.952 0.013 (0.099, 0.167) 7 79 15 0.044 0.120 0.993 0.003 (0.114, 0.126) 15 4963 -0.089
22 Rhode Island 2020-03-16 0.057 0.073 0.671 0.036 (-0.082, 0.228) 4 21 11 0.037 0.090 0.984 0.004 (0.081, 0.099) 11 203 -0.036
23 South Carolina 2020-03-16 0.072 0.082 0.822 0.027 (-0.034, 0.199) 6 30 21 0.089 0.083 0.969 0.003 (0.075, 0.09) 21 2232 0.007
24 Tennessee 2020-03-20 0.053 0.134 0.977 0.008 (0.116, 0.153) 9 223 12 0.050 0.083 0.971 0.005 (0.073, 0.093) 12 2933 -0.084
25 Texas 2020-03-20 0.063 0.132 0.984 0.005 (0.121, 0.143) 13 429 12 0.028 0.085 0.991 0.003 (0.079, 0.09) 12 4355 -0.104
26 Vermont 2020-03-18 0.008 0.017 0.750 0.010 (-0.11, 0.145) 3 13 6 0.036 0.127 0.973 0.010 (0.098, 0.156) 6 95 0.019
27 Virginia 2020-03-16 0.086 0.136 0.832 0.035 (0.024, 0.248) 5 49 13 0.017 0.095 0.998 0.001 (0.092, 0.098) 13 890 -0.119
28 Washington 2020-03-17 0.096 0.118 0.973 0.005 (0.107, 0.129) 17 955 5 0.020 0.070 0.959 0.008 (0.043, 0.096) 5 1997 -0.098
29 Wisconsin 2020-03-18 0.050 0.153 0.965 0.015 (0.113, 0.194) 6 111 6 0.032 0.097 0.964 0.009 (0.071, 0.123) 6 481 -0.121