State Order Date Standard Deviation
(RMSE Before stay at home)
Infection Rate
(Before stay at home)
R Squared
(Before stay at home)
Slope Standard Error
(Before stay at home)
Confidence Interval
(Before stay at home)
Maximum Number of Days Before Maximum Number of Cases Before n
(days)
Standard Deviation
(RMSE From stay at home to start of reopening period / today)
Infection Rate
(From stay at home to start of reopening period / today)
R Squared
(From stay at home to start of reopening period / today)
Slope Standard Error
(From stay at home to start of reopening period / today)
Confidence Interval
(From stay at home to start of reopening period / today)
Maximum Number of Days After Maximum Number of Cases After Mean Slope Change
(Log Scale)
0 Alabama 2020-04-04 0.136 0.099 0.951 0.005 (0.088, 0.109) 21 1614 25 0.040 0.023 0.946 0.001 (0.021, 0.026) 25 6912 -0.059
1 Alaska 2020-03-28 0.045 0.110 0.976 0.007 (0.095, 0.126) 9 85 26 0.044 0.020 0.922 0.001 (0.018, 0.023) 26 337 -0.066
2 Arizona 2020-03-31 0.097 0.134 0.981 0.005 (0.124, 0.143) 18 1289 33 0.036 0.022 0.972 0.001 (0.021, 0.024) 33 8640 -0.098
3 California 2020-03-19 0.143 0.084 0.957 0.003 (0.077, 0.091) 28 1009 49 0.153 0.032 0.897 0.002 (0.029, 0.035) 49 62148 0.069
4 Colorado 2020-03-26 0.100 0.113 0.972 0.005 (0.103, 0.123) 18 1430 31 0.054 0.027 0.951 0.001 (0.024, 0.029) 31 13441 -0.059
5 Connecticut 2020-03-23 0.076 0.154 0.976 0.008 (0.136, 0.172) 11 415 57 0.198 0.027 0.830 0.002 (0.023, 0.03) 57 38430 0.044
6 Delaware 2020-03-24 0.034 0.111 0.983 0.006 (0.096, 0.126) 8 104 44 0.133 0.038 0.930 0.002 (0.035, 0.042) 44 5939 0.022
7 District of Columbia 2020-04-01 0.075 0.091 0.972 0.004 (0.082, 0.099) 17 586 57 0.082 0.018 0.927 0.001 (0.016, 0.019) 57 8492 -0.009
8 Florida 2020-04-03 0.130 0.120 0.981 0.003 (0.114, 0.127) 27 10268 30 0.034 0.016 0.943 0.001 (0.015, 0.018) 30 36078 -0.086
9 Georgia 2020-04-03 0.121 0.109 0.979 0.003 (0.102, 0.116) 26 5831 20 0.032 0.028 0.962 0.001 (0.025, 0.031) 20 21883 -0.077
10 Hawaii 2020-03-25 0.065 0.117 0.956 0.010 (0.095, 0.14) 9 91 35 0.105 0.020 0.792 0.002 (0.017, 0.024) 35 613 -0.012
11 Idaho 2020-03-25 0.044 0.097 0.951 0.010 (0.072, 0.122) 7 91 36 0.154 0.025 0.745 0.003 (0.02, 0.031) 36 1984 0.057
12 Illinois 2020-03-21 0.076 0.158 0.981 0.007 (0.142, 0.173) 12 753 68 0.180 0.026 0.891 0.001 (0.024, 0.028) 68 115833 0.022
13 Indiana 2020-03-24 0.096 0.123 0.964 0.007 (0.108, 0.138) 14 368 40 0.142 0.034 0.887 0.002 (0.03, 0.038) 40 19933 0.019
14 Kansas 2020-03-30 0.052 0.105 0.987 0.003 (0.098, 0.112) 15 372 34 0.029 0.031 0.991 0.001 (0.03, 0.032) 34 5156 -0.076
15 Kentucky 2020-03-26 0.050 0.102 0.987 0.003 (0.095, 0.109) 15 247 45 0.087 0.028 0.947 0.001 (0.026, 0.03) 45 6440 -0.015
16 Louisiana 2020-03-23 0.086 0.159 0.976 0.008 (0.141, 0.177) 12 1172 52 0.195 0.021 0.714 0.002 (0.017, 0.024) 52 33489 0.036
17 Maine 2020-04-02 0.076 0.072 0.961 0.004 (0.065, 0.08) 18 376 28 0.023 0.015 0.964 0.001 (0.014, 0.016) 28 1095 -0.049
18 Maryland 2020-03-30 0.059 0.115 0.991 0.003 (0.109, 0.12) 19 1413 45 0.096 0.028 0.933 0.001 (0.025, 0.03) 45 35903 -0.019
19 Massachusetts 2020-03-24 0.099 0.116 0.978 0.004 (0.107, 0.124) 20 3618 54 0.118 0.023 0.898 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 54 87805 0.002
20 Michigan 2020-03-24 0.055 0.183 0.992 0.005 (0.171, 0.194) 12 1942 68 0.166 0.015 0.762 0.001 (0.013, 0.017) 68 62711 -0.017
21 Minnesota 2020-03-27 0.088 0.102 0.962 0.006 (0.09, 0.114) 15 396 50 0.025 0.031 0.997 0.000 (0.03, 0.031) 50 14969 -0.077
22 Mississippi 2020-04-03 0.174 0.107 0.919 0.008 (0.091, 0.123) 19 1358 23 0.020 0.027 0.988 0.001 (0.026, 0.029) 23 5911 -0.087
23 Missouri 2020-04-06 0.180 0.112 0.935 0.007 (0.098, 0.127) 21 3030 27 0.019 0.015 0.975 0.000 (0.014, 0.016) 27 8712 -0.093
24 Montana 2020-03-28 0.049 0.113 0.982 0.005 (0.101, 0.125) 11 129 28 0.052 0.015 0.848 0.001 (0.013, 0.018) 28 445 -0.061
25 Nevada 2020-04-01 0.093 0.104 0.979 0.004 (0.097, 0.111) 21 1279 37 0.039 0.016 0.950 0.001 (0.015, 0.017) 37 5920 -0.065
26 New Hampshire 2020-03-27 0.054 0.081 0.964 0.005 (0.07, 0.092) 12 158 44 0.077 0.024 0.942 0.001 (0.022, 0.026) 44 3071 -0.004
27 New Jersey 2020-03-21 0.065 0.182 0.989 0.006 (0.169, 0.196) 12 1327 79 0.252 0.017 0.696 0.001 (0.014, 0.019) 79 164497 0.070
28 New Mexico 2020-03-24 0.031 0.090 0.990 0.003 (0.084, 0.096) 12 100 37 0.101 0.039 0.945 0.002 (0.036, 0.043) 37 3411 0.011
29 New York 2020-03-22 0.116 0.163 0.983 0.005 (0.152, 0.174) 19 15191 53 0.140 0.019 0.815 0.001 (0.017, 0.022) 53 343051 -0.023
30 North Carolina 2020-03-30 0.095 0.114 0.977 0.004 (0.105, 0.122) 19 1426 38 0.047 0.023 0.967 0.001 (0.022, 0.025) 38 14051 -0.067
31 Ohio 2020-03-23 0.048 0.150 0.990 0.005 (0.138, 0.161) 11 443 41 0.111 0.035 0.934 0.001 (0.032, 0.038) 41 19914 -0.039
32 Oregon 2020-03-23 0.046 0.082 0.985 0.003 (0.076, 0.087) 16 191 52 0.106 0.019 0.878 0.001 (0.017, 0.021) 52 3479 0.024
33 Pennsylvania 2020-04-01 0.068 0.126 0.993 0.002 (0.122, 0.131) 23 6009 36 0.070 0.022 0.915 0.001 (0.02, 0.025) 36 55956 -0.056
34 Rhode Island 2020-03-28 0.044 0.086 0.988 0.003 (0.08, 0.091) 16 239 41 0.120 0.037 0.931 0.002 (0.034, 0.041) 41 10779 0.034
35 South Carolina 2020-04-07 0.162 0.091 0.948 0.004 (0.082, 0.099) 28 2417 12 0.016 0.021 0.955 0.001 (0.018, 0.024) 12 4377 -0.075
36 Tennessee 2020-04-02 0.119 0.112 0.973 0.004 (0.104, 0.121) 22 3013 24 0.018 0.020 0.982 0.001 (0.018, 0.021) 24 9667 -0.094
37 Texas 2020-04-02 0.108 0.114 0.984 0.003 (0.108, 0.12) 26 5069 28 0.045 0.024 0.948 0.001 (0.022, 0.026) 28 28727 -0.069
38 Vermont 2020-03-25 0.057 0.125 0.975 0.007 (0.109, 0.141) 10 125 25 0.067 0.029 0.909 0.002 (0.025, 0.033) 25 813 -0.058
39 Virginia 2020-03-30 0.059 0.099 0.988 0.003 (0.094, 0.105) 19 1020 45 0.076 0.028 0.959 0.001 (0.026, 0.03) 45 27813 -0.023
40 Washington 2020-03-23 0.125 0.101 0.966 0.004 (0.093, 0.11) 23 2221 48 0.089 0.015 0.841 0.001 (0.013, 0.017) 48 16891 -0.012
41 West Virginia 2020-03-24 0.030 0.079 0.899 0.019 (-0.002, 0.16) 4 22 36 0.140 0.036 0.879 0.002 (0.032, 0.041) 36 1110 0.061
42 Wisconsin 2020-03-25 0.076 0.133 0.977 0.006 (0.12, 0.147) 13 621 48 0.060 0.022 0.961 0.001 (0.02, 0.023) 48 10611 -0.073